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4. Trends in Canada

Unless otherwise indicated, data referenced in this section of the report are obtained from the Energy Efficiency Analysis Tables published by Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), and from the corresponding publication, Energy Efficiency Trends in Canada, 1990 - 2004 (August 2006). The data is based on secondary energy use or energy end-use. In contrast with some other publications, the data does not reflect primary energy use (i.e. the amount of energy required at the point of production). It is important to note that, while the information contained in this publication is consistent with aggregate energy use data collected by Statistics Canada, the allocation of energy consumption by category (e.g. mode, end-use, sub-sector) is accomplished through a combination of survey data and professional judgment.12

Annual changes in sectoral energy use result from a combination of factors "activity", "structure", "service level", "weather" and "efficiency" as described in Section 2. Depending on the sector, the exact definition of each term may differ; however, the use of common terminology allows for a consistent approach to analysis and presentation, particularly with regards to understanding the drivers of change and opportunities for energy efficiency improvements.

Section 4.1 describes the overall trends for the Canadian economy. Subsequent sections deal with each of the key sectors. While energy efficiency is the variable of interest, changes at the sector, sub-sector, and end-use level are described in terms of energy intensity because at that level it becomes more difficult to distinguish the contributions of the various factors other than activity. However, wherever possible, the text includes a discussion of the contribution of technical efficiency in comparison with other factors.

4.1 Overall Trends

Energy use in Canada increased by 23 percent (1592 PJ) over the 1990 - 2004 period (Exhibit 4.1). The increase was driven by a 33 percent increase in activity (a combination of residential and commercial/institutional floor space, number of households, passenger- and tonne-kilometres travelled, and industrial production). Overall, energy efficiency increased by 13 percent over this same period resulting in approximately 903 PJ of avoided energy consumption. There was no significant change in the effect of structure on energy use, with the shift towards industries with lower energy intensities offset by changes in the structure of the other sectors.

Exhibit 4.1: Annual Changes in Overall Energy Use Due to Activity, Structure, Service Level & Energy Efficiency

This line graph shows four lines representing annual changes to overall energy use in Canada due to activity, structure, service level, and energy efficiency, respectively, for the period 1990 to 2004. It includes a fifth line showing total annual changes in Canadian energy use. The graph shows that total energy use in Canada increased by 23 per cent during the period covered by the graph, and that this was largely the result of increased activity. The graph also shows that energy efficiency resulted in 903 petajoules of avoided energy consumption during this period.

The breakdown by sector is shown in Exhibits 4.2 and 4.3.

Exhibit 4.2: Distribution of Energy End-Use by Sector, 2004

This pie chart shows the distribution of energy end-use by sector for the year 2004. It shows that the industrial sector represented the largest share (39 per cent) of energy end-use, followed by transportation (29 per cent), residential (16 per cent), commercial/institutional (14 per cent) and agriculture (2 per cent).

Exhibit 4.3: Changes in Secondary Energy End-Use and Contributing Factors, 1990-2004

This table shows changes in secondary energy end-use and contributing factors for the period 1990 to 2004. The residential sector used 1289 petajoules of energy in 1990 and 1395 in 2004. Activity increased by 26 per cent, intensity decreased by 12 per cent, and efficiency increased by 21 per cent. The commercial/institutional sector used 858 petajoules in 1990 and 1152 in 2004. Activity increased by 25 per cent, intensity increased by nine per cent, efficiency did not change. The industrial sector used 2717 petajoules in 1990 and 3277 in 2004. Activity increased by 40 per cent, intensity decreased by 17 per cent and efficiency increased by 12 per cent. Passenger transportation used 1139 petajoules in 1990 and 1334 in 2004. Activity increased by 28 per cent, intensity decreased by 10 per cent and efficiency increased by one per cent. Freight transportation used 685 petajoules in 1990 and 1035 in 2004. Activity increased by 51 per cent, intensity decreased by 0.2 per cent and efficiency

Improvements in energy efficiency translated into a decrease in GDP energy intensity of approximately 17%;15 however, due to an increase in per capita GDP, population energy intensity increased by approximately 8%. A comparison with the G7 countries and the OECD average is shown in Exhibits 4.4 - 4.5. While it is important to understand and take into account contextual factors when making international comparisons (e.g. German reunification; the reduction in coal-fired electricity production in the U.K.; Canada's relative vast expanse and cold climate), these factors alone may not fully explain the comparatively high Canadian per dollar GDP energy intensity (or the even higher per capita GDP figure). Furthermore, despite the considerably above average intensities, they are increasing at just slightly below average rates.

Exhibit 4.4: Percentage Change in Population & GDP Energy Intensities of Select OECD Member Countries, From 1990 - 200416

This bar graph shows percentage change in population and gross domestic product energy intensities of selected Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. In the United States, unit gross domestic product intensity decreased 14 per cent from 1990 to 2004, while per capita intensity increased by nine per cent. In the United Kingdom, unit gross domestic product intensity decreased by 21 per cent and per capita intensity increased by three per cent. In Japan, unit gross domestic product intensity decreased by three per cent and per capita intensity increased by 17 per cent. In Italy, unit gross domestic product intensity increased by three per cent and per capita intensity by 23 per cent. In Germany, unit gross domestic product intensity decreased by 21 per cent and per capita intensity by six per cent. In France, unit gross domestic product intensity decreased by five per cent and per capita intensity increased by 14 per cent. In Canada, unit gross domestic product i

Exhibit 4.5: Population & GDP Energy Intensities of Selected OECD Member Countries17

This bar graph shows population and gross domestic product energy intensities of selected Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries in 2004, measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per capita and tonnes of oil equivalent per thousand 2000 American dollars gross domestic product. The graph shows this information for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development as a whole, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Italy, Germany, France, and Canada. Of the countries shown, Canada and the United States have the highest per capita intensities and Canada has the highest gross domestic product intensity. Italy has the lowest per capita intensity and the lowest gross domestic product intensity. For all countries except for the United States and Canada, gross domestic product intensity is shown to exceed per capita intensity. In Canada, both measures of intensity are shown to be approximately equal, and in the United States per capita intensity is sho

4.2 Residential

Between 1990 and 2004, total residential energy consumption increased by 106 PJ, or eight percent (Exhibit 4.6), driven primarily by an increase in activity (growth in the number of households was 25 percent and growth in floor space was 29 percent).18 Meanwhile, energy efficiency improved 21 percent, for net decreases in energy intensity of 12 and 15 percent on household and square meter bases, respectively. The breakdown by end-use is summarized in Exhibit. 4.7.

The long-term trend towards a decrease in the number of people per household and increased house size, coupled with population growth, acted in opposition to the technical efficiency gains achieved.

Exhibit 4.6: Annual Changes in Residential Energy Use Due to Activity, Structure & Energy Efficiency

This line graph includes three lines showing annual changes in residential energy use due to activity, structure, and energy efficiency, respectively, for the period 1990 to 2004. It includes a fourth line showing total annual changes in residential energy use. The graph covers the period 1990 to 2004. It shows that during this time, residential energy use increased by eight per cent, mainly as a result of increased activity in the residential sector. The graph shows that during this time, energy efficiency improved by 21 per cent, offsetting to some degree the increases caused by increased activity and increased energy use due to structural changes.

Exhibit 4.7: End-Use Shares of 2004 Total Residential Energy Consumption (1395 PJ) and Changes in End-Use Energy Consumption and Intensity, 1990-2004

This figure includes a pie chart and a bar graph. The pie chart shows the end-use shares of 2004 total residential energy consumption for the year 2004. It shows that heating accounted for 56 per cent of consumption, hot water for 25 per cent, appliances for 13 per cent, lighting for five per cent and cooling for one per cent. The bar graph shows the changes in end-use energy consumption, intensity per household and intensity per metre squared from 1990 to 2004. The graph shows that measures of intensity decreased for all energy uses (except for lighting, where intensity per household increased by two per cent, and cooling, where intensity per household increased by 29 per cent) while consumption increased. The largest increases in energy consumption occurred for cooling, which consumed 76 per cent more energy in 2004 than in 1990. Heating showed the smallest increase in consumption during this time period, four per cent.

4.2.1 Heating 

Heating represents the single largest category of household energy consumption at roughly 56 percent of total residential energy use. Heating energy intensity improved 20 percent from 1990 to 2004 on a per square meter floor space basis. This reduction has predominantly been driven by an increase in the market penetration of medium and high efficiency equipment, and by fuel switching. Technical efficiency gains were offset to some degree by increased floor space as evidenced by the only 16 percent reduction in household heating energy intensity.

4.2.2 Domestic Hot Water 

Domestic water heating accounts for 25 percent of residential energy consumption. The energy intensity of domestic water heating decreased 11 percent over the 1990 to 2004 period due to a combination of fuel shifting from oil to natural gas and improvements in gas-fired water heating technology. Natural gas accounts for 58 percent of water heating while electricity accounts for roughly 37 percent. The natural gas market share has increased by approximately six percent primarily at the expense of electricity and oil. While at the end-use level, electric water heaters are 100 percent efficient (not including tank heat loss), to the extent that electricity is thermally generated, electric water heating is less efficient than gas-fired water heating on a system-wide basis (note: this distinction is not captured here because the data is focused solely on end-use).

4.2.3 Appliances/Plug Loads 

Appliances and plug loads together account for 13 percent of residential energy consumption. The overall energy intensity of appliances decreased 12 percent on a household basis between 1990 and 2004. Standard appliances (refrigerator, freezer, dishwasher, clothes washer, clothes dryer, range) were responsible for most of the efficiency gains (intensity reduction of 29 percent) while increases in energy consumption by "other" appliances (plug loads) offset these gains by almost half (plug load intensity increased by 37 percent). It is expected that with increases in the variety and market penetration of home electronics, and particularly with movement in home entertainment systems towards higher definition and larger screens, plug loads will continue to increase.

4.2.4 Lighting 

Lighting accounts for approximately five percent of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector. Residential lighting energy intensity improved two percent from 1990 to 2004 on a per square meter basis; however, energy consumption for lighting has grown with average house size such that households on average consumed slightly more lighting energy in 2004 than in 1990 (household intensity increase of two percent). Future efficiency gains are anticipated with increased market penetration of compact fluorescents (CFLs) and the development of residential applications for light emitting diodes (LEDs).

4.2.5 Cooling 

Space cooling accounts for just under one percent of residential energy consumption in Canada. Technical efficiency in cooling equipment has increased substantially (per square meter energy intensity reduction of 21 percent) over the 1990 to 2004 period, largely stemming from the regulation of room and central air conditioners under Canada's Energy Efficiency Regulation beginning in 1995 (standards were updated in 2003 and 2006).

Despite increases in technical efficiency, energy consumption for cooling has increased substantially, and although it still remains a small contributor to energy consumption overall, it plays the single largest role of any residential end-use in contributing to electricity capacity requirements in Ontario (33 percent of peak residential summer demand).19 Between 1990 and 2004, both cooled residential floor space and the number of air conditioning units doubled. This growth has been predominantly centred in Ontario; however, Quebec, Manitoba and Alberta have also experienced some growth. According to NRCan, weather effects contribute to this increase to a variable extent, depending on the year. Overall, with the exception of 2000, summers since 1998 have been warmer than average.

4.3 Commercial / Institutional

Energy use in the commercial/institutional sector increased 294 PJ (34 percent) between 1990 and 2004 (Exhibit 4.8). This rise resulted most notably from an increase in activity (24 percent increase in floor space);20 however, increases in the service level of auxiliary equipment also contributed substantially (75 PJ). Exhibit 4.9 provides a breakdown of energy use by end-use and Exhibit 4.10 presents the changes in commercial sector energy intensity by end-use.

Exhibit 4.8: Annual Changes in Commercial Energy Use Due to Activity, Structure, Service Level & Energy Efficiency

This line graph uses three lines to show annual changes in commercial energy use due to activity, structure, service level, and energy efficiency, respectively, for the period 1990 to 2004. It includes a fourth line that shows the total change in commercial energy use. The graph shows that total energy use increased by 34 per cent during this time period, and that this change was accompanied by increases in energy use due to activity, service level and, to a lesser extent, structure. Energy efficiency improved less than one per cent during the time period shown.

While increased efficiency has accounted for energy savings over the years, recent developments appear to have resulted in a net reversal of previous gains. Overall, commercial energy efficiency improved less than one percent between 1990 and 2004 (3 PJ). According to NRCan data, between 1999 and 2004, the commercial sector experienced an eight percent growth in floor space accompanied by a 20 percent increase in energy use. This rapid growth in energy consumption is attributed to increased consumption of heavy fuel oil (188 percent rise) and light fuel oil and kerosene (95 percent rise). While a portion of this spike in consumption may be due to fuel switching away from natural gas as a result of high prices (sharp peak in 2000), at this time neither Statistics Canada nor Natural Resources Canada can provide an explanation for the increased fuel usage. That said, there is a possibility that some fuel consumption is erroneously attributed to fuel marketers (included in the commercial/institutional sector) involved in resale to other sectors. As such, the 1999 - 2004 statistics may misrepresent the efficiency of the commercial sector. Efficiency gains from the period 1990 to 1999 were in the order of eight percent.

Exhibit 4.9: End-Use Shares of 2004 Total Commercial Energy Consumption (1163 PJ) and Changes in End-Use Energy Consumption and Intensity, 1990-2004

This figure includes a pie chart and a bar graph. The pie chart shows the end-use shares of 2004 total commercial energy consumption for the year 2004. It shows that space heating accounted for 53 per cent of consumption, followed by auxiliary equipment with 14 per cent, lighting with ten per cent, water heating with nine per cent, auxiliary motors with eight per cent, and space cooling with six per cent. The bar graph shows the changes in end-use energy consumption and in intensity per square metre. The graph shows that consumption increased for all energy end-uses, with the largest increases occurring with regards to auxiliary equipment and space cooling. Intensity per square metre increased for space heating (six per cent), water heating (22 per cent), space cooling (48 per cent), and auxiliary equipment (65 per cent). Energy intensity of lighting and auxiliary motors both decreased by 17 per cent.

4.3.1 Space Heating 

Space heating accounts for approximately 53 percent of commercial energy consumption. Commercial heating energy intensity increased six percent on a per square meter basis over the 1990 to 2004 period. This increase may be due in whole or in part to the possible anomalous allocation of fuel oil discussed previously.

4.3.2 Auxiliary Equipment 

The most notable efficiency improvement occurred in the auxiliary equipment end-use which accounts for 14 percent of commercial energy consumption. Sub-sector efficiency gains ranged from 22 to 36 percent, with the largest sub-sector (Offices) recording the largest increase in auxiliary equipment efficiency. These gains were offset by increased service levels - increased market penetration of office equipment, computers, fax machines, etc. throughout the nineties resulting in a net increase in energy intensity of 65 percent. While the rate of increase in auxiliary equipment service levels has declined, service levels continue to rise.

4.3.3 Lighting 

Lighting consumes ten percent of energy in the commercial sector. Increases in lighting energy efficiency in commercial sub-sectors ranged from 15 to 22 percent with the Office (largest) sub-sector recording the highest efficiency increase. Overall, commercial lighting energy intensity decreased 17 over the 1990 to 2004 period.

4.3.4 Water Heating 

Water heating represents approximately nine percent of commercial sector energy consumption. According to the NRCan data, commercial water heating exhibited a 22 percent increase in energy intensity. No trends in technology or fuel switching appear to explain this increase, suggesting that the result may again reflect the misallocation of fuel oil consumption described earlier.

4.3.5 Auxiliary Motors 

Auxiliary motors are primarily associated with ventilation systems in the commercial sector although escalators, elevators and other building equipment are also included in this category. Overall, auxiliary motors account for approximately eight percent of sector energy consumption. Energy efficiency improvements in commercial sub-sectors ranged from 15 to 22 percent with the Office sub-sector recording the greatest efficiency gain. Overall, the energy intensity of auxiliary motors in the commercial sector improved 17 percent from 1990 to 2004.

4.3.6 Space Cooling 

Cooling accounts for approximately six percent of sector energy consumption and (as with residential cooling) is the single largest commercial end-use contributor to peak summer loads in Ontario (57 percent of peak commercial demand).21 Over the 1990 to 2004 period, commercial space cooling exhibited a 48 percent increase in energy intensity on a per square meter basis. This increase is mainly due to the increased amount of cooled space (e.g. in the office sector, cooled space increased from 75 to 100% in the period). It may also be due in part to increased cooling service levels such as those related to the increase in auxiliary equipment and resultant dedicated cooling requirements (e.g. server rooms).

 

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Date Modified: 2008-12-01

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